Tuesday, March 31, 2009

One More cool link

This is a video interview of my Aunt Lynne. She wrote "The Soul of Money" which is an amazing book about transforming your relationship with money, how you think about it, into one of empowerment, opportunity and growth. Amazing, inspirational book. And a great, thought provoking interview:

Another cool link: Why Money Messes with Your Mind

The Art of Non-Conformity

The Art of Non-Conformity is a great thought provoking blog post about choosing a path different from the road most travelled, or, as he puts it, those who "have taken the blue pill."

For those of us struggling to find a new way to live and experience the world (since the "normal" path pretty much sucks now with the whole economic collapse thingy) check it out.

Friday, March 27, 2009

One more piece of the puzzle

I haven't had time to really blog in quite a while. Hopefully, I'll be able to blog soon about what's actually going on in our life, and how we're adjusting to the new economy, etc.

But in the meantime, I can't keep quiet. I just read chapter 4 of Robert Kiosaki's Conspiracy of the Rich, and between that, and what I've been reading in the media, I'm about to explode.

Hopefully, you've watched the video on how the credit crisis happened. If not, watch it.

Last week, the Fed announced its going to buy $1.2 trillion in US Treasury Bonds. That is, it is going to loan $1.2 trillion to the US treasury to help stimulate the economy. Sounds nice right. But where does that money come from? Sure, its called the Federal Reserve, but that is a misnomer. It is neither Federal, nor a Reserve. It doesn't hold money or assets. It only prints money. Got it? The Federal Reserve announced it is going to print $1.2 trillion dollars to lend to the US treasury.

Seriously? Are they TRYING to cause inflation?

At first I was scared, and then I thought about it: maybe that's a good thing, since a depression happens when there is massive deflation, not inflation, right? That's what happened in 1929. Trouble was, that didn't make me feel any better, just more confused. How could this possibly help?

That's when I read Chapter 4 of Conspiracy of the Rich. It talks about the two types of inflation. The American type, caused by deflation, and the German type, caused by inflation. In 1929, our depression was deflation related because our money was tied to the gold standard. Inflation was controlled at that point. Savers made out huge, cause every dollar they saved bought more.

At the same time, Germany experienced hyperinflation. Their money wasn't tied to any asset, so to get themselves out of deflation, they printed more money. And more. And more. Until it was completely useless. Savers lost big time, but debtors made out because their debts could be paid back for practically nothing.

Now, our money is off the gold standard, or any standard, and our central bank is printing more money to fight deflation. Looking at Germany, I can start to understand why I don't feel like any of this is helping. Why there's no great upswing in the economy. Sure, deflation isn't a problem any more, but inflation can hurt just as bad. And I'd say from my vantage point, it is hurting. Hopefully, Ben Bernake at the Federal Reserve will be able to tell just when to stop printing money and that will help stabilize the economy. But if he goes too far, we may be in for one nasty ride.

Personally, I think he's playing a dangerous game.

Oh, and for those who are wondering, the next two chapters of Robert's book are supposed to be released very soon, and they are about how to figure out what to do: what action is best for you at this time. Personally, I can't wait. This book has been a huge piece of the puzzle for me, pulling together all the separate bits of info into a whole picture.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Passive Barriers

Great article about why we don't do the things we keep saying we want to do (exercise more, balance our checkbook, clean our garage), AND how to get past those things that keep you stuck. This article calls them barriers, and though active barriers (like a locked door) are easy to see and deal with, passive barriers are harder to see, and thus, harder to deal with.

A great read, and food for thought: The Psychology of Passive Barriers: Why your friends don't save money, eat healthier, or clean their garage.

Friday, March 13, 2009

The Shack

My sister-in-law sent us a book that she said was very moving to her: The Shack

I'm really enjoying reading it. Its about a man who gets to have a very frank and revealing conversation with God. I'm not really into religious material, but this turned out to be very non-religious. In fact, anti-religious, in that God doesn't care for much of what organized religion creates and stands for (neither do I for that matter.)

Its also a beautiful story of healing and growth, as the character has some major trauma in his life that he is struggling with years later, when he meets God.

Its a great read, and I recommend it. I also recommend two other books I love that contain similar ideas: Conversations With God (my favorite is book 1), and http://www.amazon.com/Celestine-Prophecy-James-Redfield/dp/0446671002/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236973579&sr=1-1

I'm hoping the receipt of this book also means I might be able to talk more openly with my sister-in-law about religion, and the things in our life that she has previously considered offensive and evil, often because they are secular. I'm somewhat confused she even enjoyed the book, as it has so many messages that go against things she's told me she believes. We'll see how the conversation develops.

More awesome banking info

It seems like more and more people are waking up and paying attention to reality. I just watched Jon Stewart interview Jim Cramer about the bad calls CNBC made with regards to the stock market, and I think Jim said something very telling:

Talking about Bear Sterns being leveraged 35 to 1:

JS: But honest or not, in what world is a 35 to 1 leverage position sane?
JC: The world that made you 30% year after year after year beginning from 1999 to 2007


Jon swept past it, but its absolutely true. We have been in an up market for over 25 years, with a huge boom for the last eight of them, and reality, intelligence and responsibility just went out the window. And no one really cared cause it all just seemed to keep working, and everyone made money.

And now here is an article about how Ben Bernake wants to keep acting that way:
Creative Accounting Won't Solve The Banking Industry's Problems

Actually, most of the gov't wants to pretend that's still the world we live in. That we still live in a world where things are growing so well that if we just wait, we'll make money again. Not going to happen. The past is the past. I highly recommend reading Conspiracy of the Rich, (what's been released so far anyway) or if you are into reading technical economic books, Human Nature and The Grunch of Giants. This is a fascinating thing going on, and its fascinating how people are reacting to it, but I hold to my original metaphor:

The US has become morbidly obese and now is on a forced diet, but Uncle Sam keeps trying to feed us pie and cakes to ease our pain. The pain is healing, and good. Let it happen. Pie and cakes will only make our diet last longer.

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Great Resource

Robert Kiosaki (author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad, and a bunch of other stuff) is writing an online book called The Conspiracy of the Rich. He is releasing it to a group of registered individuals for free, as he writes it. I just read the third chapter.

There are a lot of really great things he brings up in the book, about how the economy works, how money works, now and in the past, and what's going on with our economic collapse. To be fair, a lot of the concepts he brings up are not new to me, so I understand this book better than others might.

That's actually why he's releasing the book this way first. After each major concept, he asks those who have registered to go to the discussion board and list their questions or anything that is confusing to them. This way he can explain and expand the book for final release and make sure that the major questions of his readers are answered.

I highly recommend checking it out if you are interested at all in what is going on with the banks, the bailout, the stock market, or just the economy in general. Even if you don't understand everything, its a great place to find out what you don't know, and use that as a starting place for further research.

http://conspiracyoftherich.com/

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Doom

And Gloom. It seems like you hear a lot of that these days. But I think its all perspective. Sure, I write about what's happening in the financial sector cause I find it interesting, but on a day to day basis it doesn't affect me.

Some say the next Great Depression is coming, because they watch the stock market plunge. I say "I don't see any soup kitchens around."

Sure, its bad, and its gonna get worse in the financial sector. We may see nasty inflation and high unemployment. We may have retired grandparents move back in with their kids cause they lost their portfolio, and a high foreclosure rate, but we are so SO much better off than in the 1930s.

We have the FDIC, which kept everyone who's bank closed last year from going bust. We have unemployment, disability, WIC, food stamps and all sorts of other programs that help pay bills and buy food when we need help. Are chemical based agrobusiness (while bad for the environment and long term health) ensures that there's no possibility of a dust bowl the way there was in the 50s. I'm sure we could all add more to this list, but the basic message is, that sure, it hurts, but I don't think it'll hurt that much. We are much more prepared to help each other than we were then, and we already are helping each other. In the end, we'll probably get a stronger, better society out of this, so don't panic. It'll be ok.

Confidence: follow up

On my blog entry about Confidence, Sarah asked a great question in her comment. Sarah, if you don't mind, I'm going to paraphrase: Why is it a stupid idea to lend to banks like Bank of America and Citibank? If they go under, that's a lot of jobs lost.


Its true, Bank of America and Citibank are in trouble, much more so than they say, and could go under. And if they do, that's a ton more jobs that are lost, not just from the banks, but from companies that had their money in those banks.

I'm not nesecarily against the gov't paying these banks if it helps them to stay solvent. a) I'm not sure the gov't has enough money available to do this, and b) I'm not convinced its the best use of limited gov't funds.

First, lets assume that Bank of America and Citibank are actually salvagable. The US gov't spends several hundred billion dollars to save them. The reality is that, though they are now solvent again, they still have to lend significant amounts of money to stimulate the economy. This not only means that their balance sheets have to allow for this but that they must also take the time to process each loan. For the balance sheets to allow this, they must have enough capital on hand to cover the estimated loans that have defaulted and are going to default, plus extra to loan out. Then they must, over the course of time, loan out enough money to enough companies that it stimulates employers and consumers and the economy recovers.

Would it work? Eventually, yes. But it is a lot of money (no one knows exactly how much, because the banks won't value their bad loans at market value currently. If they did, it would be immediately apparent they are insolvent and they would be closed) and it is a significant amount of time. The gov't doesn't lend money quickly or all at once. Nor do I expect lenders to all apply at once for loans (though I could be dead wrong on that) And all that time that passes means more job loss and economic slump.

Honestly, its not a bad place to put our money, I just think its not the right place. I think its too risky to loan money to the banks to cover their loans, given that they could fail anyway, and that it'll take too long to work. So I feel the money is better spent on things that make us, as a country, feel more confident: social services, health care, and more jobs. I have heard people point out that those types of services are harder to cut after its all said and done, and people don't need them anymore. A valid point, but still, this is where I think the money will be better spent.

As for tax cuts, sure I appreciate them, but much more would be done for the economy if that money was used for a lot of new gov't jobs instead of a few more bucks in each of our pockets. Tax cuts help politically, not economically.

Maybe its because I'm coming from a frugal perspective: I'd rather see us pay for actual services and jobs than loan money to risky companies that we hope can pull us out of this thing. It is a really hard decision, and I can see where Obama's plan makes some sense: try a bit of everything, and see what works best. I guess I just feel like we tried the tax cuts and bank bailouts already, and they didn't do much good. So how does trying it again make sense?

Saturday, March 7, 2009

Stupid FOX

I've been sick all week, so needless to say that inbetween all the sleeping, I've watched a lot of television. All on hulu, my new favorite website. Free TV and movies streaming legally from NBC/Universal. And one of the shows I watch is Joss Whedon's new show: Dollhouse.

Its got a decent premise and could be really intriguing, but has yet to completely grab me. Moments, sure. And the last two episodes finally started to have some decent intrigue with regards to Alpha (those who know, know. Everyone else, watch the show.) I'm particularly into the show not because its good (it is decent, and very pretty), but because the last show Joss had on FOX was amazing. You just couldn't tell. FOX reworked the pilot so it sucked, changed the order of the episodes so they made less sense, and basically screwed the show up so it was no surprise when it got cancelled first season. The show was Firefly and it was amazing. If you haven't seen it, see it. All the episodes are on hulu for free.

And now it looks like the same thing is happening with Dollhouse. I just read the script for the original pilot. Totally awesome. Intriguing, fast moving, quixotic. I would have been hooked on this show. Sure, it may have moved too fast for some veiwers, particularly those not used to scifi. Ok. Change it a little.

No, fox has a completely different pilot written, and all I can say is that it severly has changed where the characters are going and what's going on. They even cut the cool sciency bits that make scifi awesome.

Sigh. I will still watch Dollhouse, cause I believe all the cool parts I read about in the pilot will show themselves eventually. I just hope Dollhouse can stay around long enough to get to those parts, especially if FOX continues to make Joss write them out.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Confidence

Wow, the DOW below 7000. And I'm not very surprised. I think just about everyone understands that this market isn't going to recover any time soon. And though Obama's heart is in the right place, the money alone isn't going to do anything but prolong the problem.

Our main issue right now, as it was in 1929, is confidence. Its why the DOW is going to keep dropping, quite likely to somewhere around 5500, why unemployment is going to go up, and why the GDP is going to keep going down. To explain one aspect of why confidence is important: if you as a consumer aren't confident in a products ability to do what it says it will, you don't buy it, right? Well, the same thing applies to investors buying a companies stock, or lenders lending to a company. And currently, everyone is so scared, they won't even invest in stocks that ARE good. And lenders are so scared about making a bad call, they aren't lending to anyone either. Just as a consumer will avoid cream cheese if it made him sick once, the investors and lenders are avoiding putting any money at all into companies that need it.

Fewer lenders supporting businesses means those businesses can easily become sickly and have to cut their workforce, close stores and factories, etc. And if the businesses look sickly, any investors left who believed in them bail too. Its that simple. Investors flock to cash and bonds instead (creating a bubble in the bond market, but that's another story) and lenders just don't lend.

In the meantime all us little guys get hurt as our jobs are cut, our stores are closed, and prices are raised (I think we'll see more of this later on this year.)

Obama is headed in the right direction: putting more money into social services, health care, investing in science and green technology, basically trying to get our country to believe in itself once again. He also continues to give money to banks and lenders to hoard, and tax breaks that cost the gov't billions but don't help any single person enough to make a difference. Those moves, while they are bipartisan, aren't smart. They don't do anything to create confidence in the long term, which is exactly what we need.

With confidence, lenders will lend again, investors will invest, employers will hire, and in general, people will breathe easier. Unfortunately, confidence doesn't come quick, easy or cheap. A lot of time and work will be involved, and in the meantime, the DOW will continue to slide.

Its not all doom and gloom though. As I have said before, though this is painful, its forcing us into a smaller, more sustainable standard of living; one where its not about how many toys you have, but how well you live and how fulfilled you are. That's a good thing. Its also had the side effect of encouraging Americans to save for the future and to pay off their debts, also a good thing. So yes, the economy will shrink more before it gets better, and yes, it looks dreary and upsetting, but at the core of this is a whole new life for us as Americans. One where we know the value of the word "enough," where we have confidence in our country, and one where America has an inner strength that means much more than her outer economic might used to mean.